MSS CCRS
Singapore Government

Upcoming CCRS seminars

Date: 16th Jul 2024, Tuesday (11:00am – 12:00pm)
Presenter: Jason Lee (NUS)
Topic: Humans in a warming world – more than just heat injuries and productivity losses

Abstract:
While heat stress is the effect of the environment on the individual, heat strain is the resultant thermal load the body experiences predominantly from the weather, workload and clothing. Although heat stress is typically associated with outdoor work, it is also present in indoor workplace environments involving processes that emit radiant heat with inadequate ventilation. Workers, including military personnel, firefighters, law enforcers, construction workers, healthcare workers, gig workers and food stall hawkers are particularly affected by the heat. Heat stress not only increases the risk of heat injury but can also interfere with work productivity. In addition, heat stress can compromise decision making, thereby increasing the risk of accidents. Challenges associated with heat stress and solutions will be presented. Extreme heat will become more intense and frequent. It hurts the whole society and we must take urgent actions now to heatproof our people.

Speaker Profiles:
Prof. Jason Lee is an Associate Professor at the Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore. He co-leads the Human Potential Translational Research Programme and directs the Heat Resilience and Performance Centre. Jason co-chairs the Heat Injury Clinical Practice Guidelines at the Ministry of Health and chairs the Scientific Committee on Thermal Factors at the International Commission on Occupational Health. He is on the management committee at the Global Heat Health Information Network and leads the WHO-WMO Southeast Asia Heat Health Node to scale up efforts in managing the complex health risks posed by rising ambient temperatures.

Date: 23rd Jul 2024, Tuesday (11:00am – 12:00pm)
Presenter: Pavel Tkalich (NUS/TCOMS)
Topic: Sea level trend and Low-Frequency Variability of South China Sea

Abstract:
The low-frequency sea level variability in the South China Sea (SCS) is examined using high-resolution regional ocean model simulations spanning the last six decades. The analysis reveals interdecadal oscillations with a periodicity of 12-13 years as the dominant mode of sea level variability in the SCS. The fluctuations in the Luzon Strait transport (LST) are identified as the primary driver of interannual to interdecadal sea level variability, rather than atmospheric forcing within the SCS. Luzon Strait transport shows a weakening trend in the last six decades, resulting in higher heat accumulation and larger steric expansion in the deep SCS. The ocean mass redistribution acts as a mechanism to balance the contrasting steric-induced sea level changes over the deep SCS and shallow continental shelves.

Speaker Profiles:
Dr. Pavel Tkalich is Principal Research Fellow at National University of Singapore (NUS) and is holding joint appointment at Technology Centre for Offshore and Marine, Singapore (TCOMS). His research is directed to unite Climate Change and Variability, Ocean and Coastal Dynamics, Sea level trend and extremes, Environmental Impact Assessment.

Date: 30th Jul 2024, Tuesday (11:00am – 12:00pm)
Presenter: Sandeep Sahany (CCRS)
Topic: Singapore’s Third National Climate Change Study

Abstract:
As a follow-up of Singapore’s Second National Climate Change Study (V2) released in 2015, Singapore’s Third National Climate Change Study (V3) provides the required high-resolution climate change projections for Singapore (grid resolution of 8km and 2km) and the wider Southeast Asia region (grid resolution of 8km), by dynamically downscaling the coarse resolution global climate model data used in IPCC AR6. Key findings from V3 and the V3 Data Visualisation Portal containing the stakeholder and science reports, images, brochures, videos, infographic, and related materials were released earlier this year. This new data set forms the basis for impact studies and adaptation planning to help safeguard Singapore from the adverse effects of climate change.

Speakers Profiles:
Dr Sandeep Sahany is a Deputy Principal Research Scientist at the Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS). He leads the Climate Projections and Extremes Branch at CCRS. His team of research scientists were responsible for delivering a major part of Singapore’s Third National Climate Change Study (V3). He has published around 50 research articles in international journals, and delivered many talks at national and international conferences, meetings, and workshops.

Date: 6th Aug 2024, Tuesday (10:00am – 11:00am)
Presenter: Jianjun Yu (CCRS)
Topic: Historical and Future Heat Extremes and Exposures in Southeast Asia

Abstract:
Heat extremes pose a growing challenge to the world, particularly in Southeast Asia (SEA), where the projected increase of population, urbanization, and economic expansion amplifies the vulnerability to heat extremes. In this talk, based on ERA5-Land reanalysis datasets, the historical heatwave events and its characteristics in terms of intensity, duration and frequency will be firstly discussed. Furthermore, utilizing the recent high-resolution regional climate change projections from Singapore’s Third National Climate Change Study (V3), we assessed the projected change in future extreme temperature characteristics (i.e. maximum temperature, distribution shift, exceedance rate and heatwaves etc.) in SEA under three emission scenarios. Our findings indicate a consistent increase in frequency of heat extremes across all scenarios in SEA, with a sustained longer duration. Last, the social economic and population exposure to extreme heat and the potential impacts will be discussed.

Speaker Profiles:
Dr. Jianjun Yu is senior research scientist in Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Meteorological Service Singapore (CCRS, MSS). He participated in Singapore’s Third National Climate Change Study for climate projections assessment especially in extreme temperatures and heat stress over Southeast Asia and Singapore. He has the academic background of physical geography, GIS and hydrology and water resources management. He participated in many natural hazard risk assessment projects in drought, flood, landslide, tsunami and chemical spills across China and Southeast Asian counties. He was also a specialist in spatial information technology with over 10 years’ experience using spatial databases and GIS for geographical data analytics and hydro-informatics software development for examples Autodesk Map3D, DHI MIKE, Schneider water and energy distribution network modelling software and digital twin.

Date: 13th Aug 2024, Tuesday (11:00am – 12:00pm)
Presenter: Arun Ramanathan (CCRS)
Topic: Application of the Universal Multifractal Framework in Meteorology

Abstract:
The concept of universality in complex systems states that only a few parameters out of many are relevant for defining the system since the same dynamical process is repeated scale after scale or the process interacts with many independent processes over a range of scales, resulting in this reduction. In the Universal Multifractal framework only three parameters, are necessary, and they each have different geometrical and physical meanings. This framework also seems to have some advantages in being a physically meaningful, statistically relevant, computationally cheap option for simulating the behaviour of complex systems such as the atmosphere since it readily considers spatiotemporal heterogeneity, and higher-order statistics. Some of Arun’s earlier work in this context will be presented.

Speaker Profiles:
Dr. Arun Ramanathan has over three years of postdoctoral experience at the Hydrology, Meteorology, and Complexity Laboratory at École des Ponts, where he developed multifractal-based simulation methods and analysis techniques for modelling precipitation, temperature, and the hydrological behaviour of complex media. His doctoral research focused on mesoscale atmospheric predictability using spatially anisotropic universal multifractal models. He holds a joint M.Tech-Ph.D. in the field of earth system science and technology from the Centre for Ocean, River, Atmosphere, and Land Sciences at the Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur. Currently, he is part of the Numerical Weather Prediction Branch in the Department of Weather Research at the Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS), where he focusses on NWP post-processing.

Date: 14th Aug 2024, Wednesday (11:00am – 12:00pm)
Presenter: Sandeep Mohapatra (UTAS)
Topic: Exploring New Mode of Variability in Global Sea level

Abstract:
Climate modes are important tools for understanding internal climate variability. While existing regional climate modes explain a significant portion of sea level variability around the world, they do not account for its entirety. Our study identifies two new internal mode of variations (Asymmetric-ASYM and Symmetric-SYM) in sea levels that are not explained by existing common climate modes. The ASYM is characterised as variations in sea level with sea level higher (lower) in the southern (northern) hemisphere during the positive phase of this mode. Whereas the SYM based on sea level is characterised by a uniform global sea level increase (decrease). ASYM is associated with most of the hemispheric asymmetric volume change between the hemispheres and is defined by the coupled response of ocean-atmosphere interactions, wind driven circulations. Understanding these modes could significantly improve our approach to internal climate variability and potentially reduce uncertainties in projections of anthropogenic climate change.

Speaker Profiles:
Dr. Sandeep Mohapatra is a physical oceanographer and working as a Postdoctoral researcher at the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS), University of Tasmania, Australia under the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Sciences (ACEAS). He also serves as an Associate Investigator at ARC Centre for Excellence in Climate Extreme (CLEX). He completed his PhD in climate science from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India in 2022. His research interests are in the climate dynamics of the Indian Ocean, Southern Ocean and global Ocean with a major focus on sea level, ocean circulation. He is currently investigating the ocean’s role and the internal processes that drive the earth’s climate system.

Date: 27th Aug 2024, Tuesday (4:00pm – 5:00pm)
Presenter: Weiyu Zhang (U Leeds)
Topic: Impact of host climate model on contrail cirrus effective radiative forcing estimates

Abstract:
Aviation is currently estimated to contribute ~3.5% of the net anthropogenic effective radiative forcing (ERF) of Earth’s atmosphere. The largest component of this forcing comes from contrail cirrus (also with a large associated uncertainty of ~70%), estimated to be two times larger than the contribution from aviation CO2 emissions. Here we implement the contrail parameterisation previously developed for the USA NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) in the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM). By using for the first time the same contrail parameterisation in two different host climate models, this work investigates the impact of key features of the host climate model on quantifying contrail cirrus radiative impacts. We find that differences in the background humidity (in particular ice supersaturation) in the two climate models lead to substantial differences in simulated contrail fractions, with UM values being two to three times as large as those from CAM. We also find contrasting responses in overall global cloud fraction due to air traffic, with contrails causing increases and decreases in total cloud fraction in the UM and in CAM, respectively. The different complexity of the two models’ cloud microphysics schemes (i.e. single and double-moment cloud schemes in the UM and CAM, respectively) results in significant differences in the simulated changes in cloud ice water content due to aviation. When accounting for the difference in cloud microphysics complexity, we estimate the contrail cirrus ERF of the year 2018 to be 40.8 mWm−2 in the UM and 60.1 mWm−2 in CAM. While these two estimates are not entirely independent, they indicate a substantial (i.e. factor of ~2) uncertainty in contrail cirrus ERF from differences in the microphysics and radiation schemes of the two host climate models. We also find a factor of 8 uncertainty in contrail cirrus ERF due to existing uncertainty in contrail cirrus optical depth.

Speaker Profiles:
Weiyu Zhang is a PhD student in the Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science at the University of Leeds. Weiyu’s research interests include contrail parameterisation and climate modelling, evaluation of uncertainties in contrail cirrus radiative forcing, and contrail cirrus radiative forcing under future aviation fuel scenarios. Weiyu’s PhD project is supported by the NERC Panorama DTP with the UK Met Office CASE partnership.

Date: 29th Aug 2024, Thursday (11:00am – 12:00pm)
Presenter: Patrick Martineau (JAMSTEC)
Topic: Forecasting Infectious Disease Outbreaks: A Machine Learning Approach Utilizing Climate Data

Abstract:
Infectious disease outbreaks have substantial socioeconomic impacts worldwide. Among various influencing factors, climatic variability is known to affect the severity of these outbreaks by creating optimal conditions for vector population growth and disease transmission. At JAMSTEC, we have been investigating the climatic precursors of infectious diseases, focusing on malaria in South Africa and dengue in Vietnam, both of which are mosquito-borne illnesses. We have concentrated our investigation on global sea surface temperature precursors that characterize modes of ocean-atmosphere coupled variability. These modes generate atmospheric teleconnections, which in turn influence local weather patterns in South Africa and Vietnam, thereby impacting mosquito breeding conditions. Leveraging these findings, we developed machine-learning prediction systems capable of providing early warnings up to a year in advance. These systems have the potential to mitigate disease outbreaks by supporting the planning and implementation of preventive interventions.

Speaker Profiles:
Patrick Martineau is a researcher at the Application Laboratory of the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC). His research interests encompass extratropical atmospheric dynamics, including storm tracks, blocking, teleconnections, and weather extremes. He also focuses on ocean-atmosphere interactions and the application of machine learning for infectious disease predictions.

Date: 10th Sep 2024, Tuesday (11:00am – 12:00pm)
Presenter: Shovan Kumar (CCRS)
Topic: An operational air quality model for the ASEAN region

Abstract:
The maritime and continental Southeast Asia experience biomass burning smoke haze incidents recurrently which pose significant impacts on regional environment and public health. Since 2013, Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) has been developing air quality modelling capabilities in collaboration with the UK Met Office (UKMO) based on Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME). The latest iteration of NAME air quality (NAME-AQ) forecast system developed by CCRS/MSS can provide a 48-hour advance air quality forecast for the region and it has been running in real-time since September 2023. This presentation will provide an overview of this system and its performance. The inputs to NAME-AQ model include a high resolution (1 km x 1 km) local emission inventory of Singapore and nearby regions, high-resolution (0.25 km x 0.25 km) landcover and land-use data used for estimating Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) biomass burning smoke emissions, Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REASv3.2) regional anthropogenic emission inventory (0.25° x 0.25°), Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) regional biogenic emissions (0.25° x 0.25°) and Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAPv2) regional shipping emissions (0.1° x 0.1°). The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) meteorological forecasts and the CAMS lateral boundary conditions are used to drive the model. Model outputs are now generated for the six criteria pollutants used to determine Singapore’s Pollutant Standard Index (PSI), namely particulate matter (PM10), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), Sulphur dioxide (SO2), Carbon monoxide (CO), Ozone (O3) and Nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The model can capture the concentration peaks due to transboundary smoke haze, as well as local air pollution episodes such as ozone exceedance. Model outputs over Singapore are bias corrected and provided to MSS and ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) forecasters who will assess the smoke haze situation and provide the appropriate public advisory.

Speaker Profiles:
Dr Shovan Kumar Sahu’s current role in CCRS includes research and development of air quality models to study the transport of air pollutants in the context of Singapore and Southeast Asia region, validate model outputs besides maintaining and operating the currently operational air quality models. He has previously worked on simulating air pollutants in the northern hemisphere, studies estimating health burden associated with pollutant exposure, source apportionment studies estimating contribution of regions and sources responsible for air pollution, effect of future climate change on air pollutants, studies using satellite-based data to estimate air pollutant concentration, use of artificial intelligence to replace traditional models and its use in updating emission inventory.

 

About the CCRS seminar series

CCRS hosts a regular seminar series to share scientific progress in areas of relevance to CCRS and MSS activities, amongst our staff as well as with our collaborators.

These seminars serve also to connect the wider research communities interested in these topics. As such, we actively encourage and promote participation in the seminar series from the local and international researchers/practitioners in the field of earth sciences. You can find out more about the topics that were covered and the seminar speakers from the list of the past talks below.

If you wish to be kept updated on upcoming seminars or to present your research in the CCRS seminar series, or just to find out more about our seminar series, please contact us at NEA_CCRS_Engage@nea.gov.sg for more details.