Climate Projections

The purpose of our climate projections work is to develop understanding of the changing climate in the region and to generate climate scenarios to support Singapore’s national resilience planning.

Second National Climate Change Study

Phase 1 of the Second National Climate Change Study is ongoing. The study is being carried out in collaboration with the United Kingdom Meteorological Office.  An ongoing responsibility of scientists from the Climate Modelling and Prediction Section of CCRS will be to communicate the results of this study, to advise stakeholders on the use of the model output data, and to help in the interpretation of such data.

High Resolution Climate Model Simulations with Explicit Convection

As part of the Second National Climate Change Study some unique high resolution regional climate model simulations were carried out using the Met Office Unified Model (UM) with a resolution of 1.5 km. These high resolution simulations will be used to investigate the relative importance of various regional processes in driving heavy rainfall and how these may change in a future climate.

Understanding and Detecting Trends in Singapore and Surrounding Region’s Weather and Climate

Climate change projection research includes the detection of trends in meteorological variables and ascertaining whether they can be attributed to climate change. This is as distinct from other causes such as inter-annual and inter-decadal variability and urbanisation effects. This is known as “Detection and Attribution” of climate change. Several process based studies on this topic are being undertaken. The figure below shows the temperature trace at the Singapore climate station since temperature records began. The different sections are for the different locations of the climate station. Understanding the trends that are due to urbanisation, global climate change, changing frequency of El Niño events and due to other influences is a topic of future research.

Climate2

Figure: Time series of annual temperature at the Singapore Climate Station